SKI Gold Stock Prediction

presented by Jeffrey Kern, Ph.D.

Sept 08 2006

Archived SKI Update

More About This Trade

» How Did it Work Out?
» More From This Trade

  » Buy Signal
     Mar 23 06

  » Death Run
     May 17 06

  » Jeff sells 1/2
     Sept 07 06

  » Jeff sells rest
     Sept 08 06

  » Ski says sell
     Sept 09 06

9/08/06

SKI Update Intraweek SKI Update 9/08/06 8:30 A.M. PST

The 92-96 index cannot mathematically generate its end-of-bull-market sell signal today, but after today's decline it takes only one more down day on Monday to generate the signal. Jeff is selling now because the 92-96 index does not sell as prices are rising (only the contrary short-term indices sell on rises). If the 92-96 index sells, prices will be falling into the signal. A down day today will make it extremely difficult to avoid the sell signal, requiring quite a large and instant rise. Yes, the signal can still be avoided, but I am not taking that chance here.

USERX rose for 6 consecutive days into Wednesday's close and generated the short-term index sell signals (that sold at a profit from their buys last week). The run and the signals were basically a 50-50 proposition for marking a high because in bull markets prices MUST rise through the short-term sell signals. Yesterday's (9/07/06) hard decline made it appear that the sell signals would stop the market. Today's continuing decline adds to that likelihood.

If you've been holding for a year or so along with the true SKI bull market signal you can obviously just wait to be certain that the 92-96 index will sell. However, it's unlikely that the 92-96 sell signal early next week will be avoided, so this is a "heads up" call to all skiers. THE SKI BULL IS ENDING.

More detail in tomorrow's Update. I am going to 0% long the precious metals.

Best wishes, Jeff

Sept '06

SKI BUY SIGNAL	SKI SELL SIGNAL	Jeff Sold	SKI Gain/Loss	Jeff's Gain/Loss
Buy Signal 3/23/06 $13.32	Sell Signal 09/09/06 $14.85	Jeff sells half $16.35 09/07/06 Jeff sells all 09/08/07 $16.04	$1.53	$2.72
SKI Bull Ends at 84% Profit » Buy Signal Mar 23 06 » Death Run May 17 06 » Jeff sells 1/2 Sept 07 06 » Jeff sells rest Sept 08 06 » Ski says sell Sept 09 06