SKI Gold Stock Prediction

presented by Jeffrey Kern, Ph.D.

October 17th, 2002

Archived SKI Update

More About This Trade

» How Did it Work Out?
» More From This Trade

  » The Buy Signal
     Oct 15 02

  » The Sell Signal
     Oct 17 02

Gold stocks declined today, but actually held up very well. After falling 4-5% on average near the open, USERX closed down only 5 cents to 3.96. I consider today’s action very fortunate, but the 35-39 index great buy signal sustained a 2% loss (4.04 to 3.96). I had to sell, but my colleague elected to remain long, correctly citing the possibility that the 35-39 sell signal at least marked a short-term low (2-3 weeks?). It does look like a low, but I was unwilling to risk continuing this trade based upon my “judgment”. Current prices are currently below all of the 3 major indices and it is hard to see how the system will generate its next buy signal. Of-course, many rises do occur without an index buy signal. Nonetheless, the prior low of 4.01was breached, indicating that eventually this 3.96 price (low?) will also be breached to the downside (based on classical Elliot wave principles). So, instead of not having to write again for a few weeks because the 35-39 index would just remain on a buy signal and the profits would simply accrue, I am now unlikely to post for a few weeks until prices rise (if they do) to approach the 16-20 index. My wife was unhappy that I sold (she had various plans for the profits), but please remember that I have survived and profited over all these years while USERX has dropped more than 96% (from a high of over 100, split-adjusted, to the current 4.00) by maintaining discipline to the system, refusing to lose significant amounts, missing some great rises, and sometimes selling on a sell signal that marked a low. And when this same kind of buy signal occurs again, I’ll execute it the same way I did this time, but with perhaps even more fear now that this one lost 2%. I am hoping for a rise for those of you that remain long. I have nothing to indicate that we cannot rise here, but nothing to clearly predict that we will rise. I am not happy, but feel a lot better than after yesterday’s “disaster”. Best wishes.

October '02

SKI BUY SIGNAL	SKI SELL SIGNAL	Jeff Sold	SKI Gain/Loss	Jeff's Gain/Loss
Buy Signal Oct 15 02 $4.04	Sell Signal Oct 17 02 $3.96	Oct 17 02 $3.96	$-0.08	$-0.08
A rare loss for SKI. Quick and painless. » The Buy Signal Oct 15 02 » The Sell Signal Oct 17 02