SKI Gold Stock Prediction

presented by Jeffrey Kern, Ph.D.

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July 30th, 2003

Archived SKI Update
More About This Trade

Gold stocks fell slightly today, with USERX dropping 6 cents to 5.42. Today’s drop completed the prediction from last week that USERX would fall to retest the breakout point. That breakout occurred on the 35-39 index buy signal executed last Wednesday at 5.43. So we are one penny lower than the breakout. It all looks perfect (heaven forbid), as the 16-20 index back prices are currently providing support with prices at the 5.39 level. We are on an XXed Out double buy signal, a powerful buy signal portending a 21% rise within the next 16 trading days. The XXing Out says that this buy is wrong, that the 8 straight days up into Monday marked a major high. I/We will find out soon.

I went long 50% at today’s close and therefore bought in one freaking penny lower than the index bought last Wednesday at 5.43 (whoppee, but as expected, and I avoided 5 days of risk). My skeptical colleague went long 100% due to my continuing bullish perspective. Each to his/her own strategy and money management practices. It was also a fairly nice day to buy with gold down $5, but an unfilled gap remains about $4 lower.

Personally, I don’t know whether I want the gold stocks to fall a little tomorrow so I can finalize buying (down 2-3 cents would be fine) or up tomorrow. I do know, again, that prices should be higher than the 16-20 sell signal from last Thursday within 5 trading days. NOTE that I mistyped that critical price in the last Update. The correction is that prices need to be higher than 5.56 (not 5.61) by next Wednesday to provide confirmation that prices will break through that 16-20 index sell signal and rise the expected 21%.

Emotionally, what did I just do? I bought two days after what could be a major fake-out breakout high? Yes. The stops are a 35-39 sell signal (a rather large 5% risk) OR prices below 5.56 in 5 trading days from today (next Wednesday). Note that if the 35-39 index sells, there could be a whipsaw involving an immediate new 35-39 index buy signal that would be on the Path and not XXed Out, requiring a very fast re-buy. I’ll go to 100% long within the next 5 trading days. The next Update will be in 4-5 trading days unless there is a large price move in either direction. Best wishes.

How Did This Trade Work Out?

July '03 to January '04

SKI BUY SIGNAL SKI SELL SIGNAL Jeff Sold SKI Gain/Loss Jeff's Gain/Loss
Major Double Buy

Jul 23 03

Jeff Buys More

Jul 30 03

Add long, renewed buy

Oct 06 03

Sell Signal - MARKS HIGH

Jan 08 04

Dec 12 03
$3.48 $3.86

On this particular trade, the SKI system accurately predicted a Major High in the Gold Complex. Again, Jeff's Special Alerts were invaluable as he saw the signal coming almost a month in advance and was able to exit with even greater profits.

  » Buy Signal
     Jul 23 003

  » Renewed Buy
     Jul 30 03

  » Alert: Major High
     Dec 04 03

  » Alert: Jeff Sells
     Dec 09 03

  » Sell Signal
     Jan 07 04

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