SKI Gold Stock Prediction

presented by Jeffrey Kern, Ph.D.

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May 26th, 2002

Archived SKI Update
More About This Trade

Since the last Update on 5/21/02, USERX has risen each of the last three days, rising 6 cents to 5.97 on Wednesday, 45 cents! to 6.42 on Thursday, and 1 cent to 6.43 on Friday. I sold on Wednesday as I was traveling to a remote location and I only obtained the results today. USERX simply exploded without warning on Thursday as it continues to lead the world’s mutual funds. When I sold on Wednesday while on the road, I truly thought that I should hold long into the 3-day full-moon weekend that in now upon us. But I had no way of selling on Thursday or Friday. That was a very expensive vacation (smile) due to lost profits, but the 4 inches of snow on Wednesday and the gorgeous weather and sights were almost as good as the lost profits.

I grossed 15% in 5 days as USERX experienced the greatest run up in history. The run is now at 2 down and 7 up, rising an average of almost 3.5% per day. Such runs have ALWAYS marked major highs EXCEPT during the greatest bull markets in history (e.g.., during the late 1970s). THIS RUN PATTERN, ACCOMPANIED BY A 3-DAY WEEKEND, A FULL MOON, AND A 1106 INDEX SIGNAL EXECUTED ON FRIDAY’S CLOSE, HAS ALWAYS MARKED MAJOR HIGHS. Therefore, after USERX experiences its first down day, that should be a major high.

Gold ended its run of 7 straight days up with a down close on Friday. The run pattern and analysis on gold itself is completely consistent with the above conclusions on the gold stocks. Such a gold run is consistent with an intermediate or long-term high, but any close over that high will be indicative of a continuing rise and will also be consistent with a great bull market.

The above run patterns are powerful indicators. I usually recommend selling on the first down day in USERX and then re-entering should we ever experience a higher closing price than the price on the end of the run up. I have issued several incorrect warnings of a possible high ever since the 12/14/01 92-96 index bull market buy signal. These included 21 and 70 days from the last 35-39 index buy signal, as well as several 1 down and 2 up run patterns. Each historical topping pattern has been surpassed with ease. The current pattern is an even more powerful indicator of a high, and if it too is surpassed, that with be even more bullish. Either way, extraordinary patterns of human financial behavior are in the offing.

How Did This Trade Work Out?

December '01

SKI BUY SIGNAL SKI SELL SIGNAL Jeff Sold SKI Gain/Loss Jeff's Gain/Loss
Buy Signal

Dec 06 01

Sell Signal

Aug 12 02
May 30 02
$1.43 $3.50

While the mechanical SKI signal was a winner, Jeff was able to call the top with perfection in this trade!

  » The Sell Signal
     May 26 02

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